一分购彩大厅：个性化时代还没有到来

As 2014 drew to a close, I became one of the last baby boomers to turn 50. Or possibly, I became one of the first Generation Xers to reach that milestone. Depending where you draw the line, either I am about to enjoy the fruits of half a century of increasing affluence and entitlement, having climbed to the top of the hierarchy I help sustain; or I am entering a period of resentment about my smug elders’ lockhold on the best jobs and homes and the damage they have inflicted on the environment and humankind.到2014年年底，我沦为了婴儿潮一代中最后一批步入50岁的人。或者说，我沦为了X一代(Generation X)中首批抵达50岁的人。

根据有所不同的分界线，我或者是作为保持社会阶层结构并爬上了顶端的人，将要享用半个世纪以来日益增长的财富和福利的浆果；或者是，对自命不凡的长者牢牢地占有了最差的工作和房子、并对环境和人类导致伤害，我开始步入一段气愤的时期。I am part of Generation Cusp. Businesses that treat me as a boomer will vex me with advertisements for products intended for grumpy pensioners (the oldest members of the postwar birth bulge are now in their late 60s), while those that market to me as a Gen Xer will annoy me by assuming I have something in common with overambitious 30-somethings.我是正处于交叉点的一代。

把我视作婴儿潮一代的企业，不会用针对脾气脾气的卸任老人的产品广告来忘我（战后出生率上涨时期出生于的人中年纪仅次于的一些人，现在将近70岁），某种程度让我恼怒的是，那些把我当成X一代的企业则假设我和那些过分雄心勃勃的30来岁的人有一些共同之处。Such generational generalisations are only the crudest way companies decide what to sell and how to sell it. But much as I hate the stereotyping, there are good reasons why this will not be the year the personalised product and the personalised pitch come of age.这种对一代人的一般化不过是企业要求销售什么产品、以及用何种方式销售产品的最粗略的方式。尽管我很喜欢这种模式化，但仍有一些很强的原因，说明我们为何今年还会步入个性化产品和个性化销售策略的时代。Experts have long heralded the ability of manufacturers to use “mass customisation” to pimp my training shoes or your car. Insurers are eager to tailor their products to my personal driving habits. Personalised diagnostic tools and drug therapies —linked to patients’ DNA sequences — are on the horizon. With scant regard for our own privacy, we are already volunteering enough information to companies to allow them to launch more precise attacks on our wallets.专家们早已应验制造商将有能力用“大规模自定义”向我促销训练鞋，或者向你促销汽车。

保险公司急迫地期望根据我的驾驶员习惯量身打造出产品。与病人的DNA序列相关联的个性化临床工具和药物疗法在未来也有可能经常出现。

我们对自身隐私考虑到极少，早已强迫把充足的信息获取给企业，让他们对我们的钱包发动更加精准的反击。But the promise of personalisation has faded a bit since Chris Anderson got marketers all excited nine years ago with The Long Tail . In the book, he outlined the potential profit lurking in low-volume items at the end of the demand curve and warned that the 80/20 rule — the crude assumption that 20 per cent of products account for 80 per cent of sales — would “lose its bite”. Inspired, I spent some time in the late 2000s deliberately tweaking Amazon’s “recommended for you” lists, rating books I owned in the hope Jeff Bezos would find me the perfect novel — until I realised he did not care. Amazon, then as now, would rather sell me more of what I have just bought, or the latest bestsellers, than algorithmically analyse my taste in media and identify a handful of items at the underpopulated intersection of “Bill Murray movies” and “fiction by Richard Ford”.但自从9年前克里斯安德森(Chris Anderson)用一部《长尾理论》(The Long Tail)让所有的营销人员激动一起以后，个性化的前景就有些黯然失色。

在书中，安德森阐述了市场需求曲线末端销量较低的产品潜藏的利润，并警告“二八定律”(80/20 rule)，也就是粗略假设20%的产品产生80%的销售额的定律将“部分过热”。受到灵感后，我在2000年代晚期特地对我已在亚马逊(Amazon)上出售的书展开评分，好让它替换“涉及引荐”表格，希望杰夫贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)能老大我寻找最差的小说，直到我意识到，他显然不在乎这事。

和现在一样，亚马逊更加想要向我贩卖更好我刚购买的书，或者近期的畅销书，而不是利用算法分析我对媒体的品味，找到几本同时与“比尔默里(Bill Murray)的电影”和“理查德福特(Richard Ford)的小说”涉及的小众书引荐给我。Amazon’s attitude makes sense. Most companies stick with mass production and common product configurations, for technical or commercial reasons. Even Google— which commands even more data with which to personalise its services — touts its Android mobile phone operating system under the slogan “Be together. Not the same”. Tilting gently at Apple, the advertising plays to the idea that each Android user is an individual, but also part of a like-minded crowd. In reality, Google has to ensure its software works across the greatest number and range of devices, safe from malfunctions, abuses and piracy. The paradox is neatly summed up in one poster showing a crowd of Android robots, each differently dressed and equipped. Underneath, however, they are all still the same robot.亚马逊的态度有其道理。

许多企业出于技术或者商业的原因，坚决按照一般性产品配备展开大规模生产。即使是掌控了更好数据、因此可以据此对产品展开个性化的谷歌(Google)，对其Android手机操作系统的宣传语也是“和而不同”(Be together. Not the same)。这条广告保守地对苹果(Apple)展开了批评，展现出的理念是每个Android用户不仅是个体，也是思想相近的群体的一部分。然而事实上，谷歌必需保证它的软件能在数量和款型最少的设备上长时间运营，会经常出现失灵、欺诈和正版问题。

这其中的对立在一幅海报上获得了精巧的总结，海报上有一群Android机器人，每一个的穿著和装备都有所不同。然而，在外表之下，它们依旧是完全相同的机器人。Anita Elberse underlined in her recent book Blockbusters — which takes issue with the “long tail” thesis — that companies still mine a great deal of money from a few products that everybody wants to buy. “Because people are inherently social,” she wrote, “they generally find value in reading the same books and watching the same television shows and movies that others do.”阿妮塔埃尔贝斯(Anita Elberse)最近的著作《大片效应》(Blockbusters)对长尾理论明确提出了异议，指出企业仍然能依赖人人都想要出售的少数商品赚得盆剩钵剩。

“因为人天生是社会性的，”她写到，“他们一般来说不会从读者其他人读过的书，观赏其他人看完的电视剧和电影中找寻价值。”In fact, research suggests an over-tailored pitch turns customers off. Either they find it too spookily precise, or — as Stanford marketing professor Itamar Simonson has written — they sense that, because it is so bespoke, it will not be a good deal.事实上，研究指出过度自定义的销售策略不会让消费者望而却步。要么是他们实在定位过分准确，所以心生惧怕，要么就像斯坦福大学(Stanford)营销学教授伊塔马尔西蒙森(Itamar Simonson)写的那样，因为以定制度太高，消费者感觉不划算。Generalisation will continue to be a useful business tool. More precise data will allow companies to generalise better. But the capacity for confusion will remain — in part because nobody fits neatly into just one category.一般化以后仍将是一个简单的商业工具。

更加准确的数据能让企业更佳地一般化。但疑惑还将之后不存在，部分原因是没有人能严丝合缝地被归属于一种类别。One of my favourite stand-up comedy lines comes from a joke in which God toys with the human race he is creating: “I know! I’ll make seven sexes and tell them there are only two!” Lacking His omniscience, companies, generally speaking, would be wise to continue to rely on humans to do their own personalisation.我最喜欢的单人脱口秀台词来自一个笑话，上帝戏耍他建构的人类：“我告诉啦！我会建构7种性别，然后告诉他他们只有两种！”没上帝的全知，一般来说来说，之后让人们自己展开个性化才是企业的明智之举。

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